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Nashville vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
9/18/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 51First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville50%
×Draw25%
Birmingham Legion25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.62
Birmingham Legion
1.07

Nashville creates 51% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
75%
Nashville or Birmingham Legion
75%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
50%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
26%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
80%
Nashville 2+ goals
48%
Nashville 3+ goals
22%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
66%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
67%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nashville scores more
50%
level
25%
Birmingham Legion scores more
25%

Nashville at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Nashville 1–0 Birmingham Legion

Nashville beat Birmingham Legion 1-0 in USL Championship on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).