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Birmingham Legion vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
5/23/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 20BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Birmingham Legion33%
×Draw28%
Nashville39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.14
Nashville
1.25

Nashville creates 10% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 34 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
61%
Birmingham Legion or Nashville
72%
Draw or Nashville
67%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
14%
Nashville wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
68%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
32%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
11%
Nashville 1+ goals
71%
Nashville 2+ goals
36%
Nashville 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
46%
Nashville (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nashville attack 1.29 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
33%
level
28%
Nashville scores more
39%

Nashville at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Birmingham Legion 0–1 Nashville

Nashville beat Birmingham Legion 1-0 in USL Championship on May 23, 2019.

The match was played at BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham).