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Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC — Major League Soccer 2026

Nashville SC
Nashville SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
11/8/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1GEODIS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Nashville SC47%
×Draw24%
Orlando City SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville SC
1.69
Orlando City SC
1.26

Nashville SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nashville SC
1.40
Orlando City SC
1.38

allows per match

Nashville SC
1.14
Orlando City SC
1.97

finishing

Nashville SC+0.66scores more
Orlando City SC+0.03on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Orlando City SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw
71%
Nashville SC or Orlando City SC
76%
Draw or Orlando City SC
53%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+
25%
Orlando City SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals
82%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
50%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
24%
Orlando City SC 1+ goals
72%
Orlando City SC 2+ goals
36%
Orlando City SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)
62%
Orlando City SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 16 matches

Orlando City SC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.97 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.40 + Orlando City SC defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Orlando City SC attack 1.38 + Nashville SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nashville SC scores more
47%
level
24%
Orlando City SC scores more
29%

Nashville SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC beat Nashville SC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee.