Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nashville SC vs Colorado Rapids — Major League Soccer 2026

Nashville SC
Nashville SC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
9/1/2022Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 40GEODIS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Nashville SC45%
×Draw25%
Colorado Rapids30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville SC
1.59
Colorado Rapids
1.25

Nashville SC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Nashville SC
1.40
Colorado Rapids
1.35

allows per match

Nashville SC
1.14
Colorado Rapids
1.79

finishing

Nashville SC+0.66scores more
Colorado Rapids-0.15scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Colorado Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw
70%
Nashville SC or Colorado Rapids
75%
Draw or Colorado Rapids
55%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+
23%
Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals
80%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
47%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
21%
Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
71%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
36%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)
60%
Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 16 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.79 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.40 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Colorado Rapids attack 1.35 + Nashville SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nashville SC scores more
45%
level
25%
Colorado Rapids scores more
30%

Nashville SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Nashville SC 4–1 Colorado Rapids

Nashville SC beat Colorado Rapids 4-1 in Major League Soccer on September 1, 2022.

The match was played at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee.