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Colorado Rapids vs Nashville SC — Major League Soccer 2026

Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nashville SC
Nashville SC
3/3/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 4Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Colorado Rapids46%
×Draw23%
Nashville SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids
1.76
Nashville SC
1.38

Colorado Rapids creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids
2.13
Nashville SC
1.14

allows per match

Colorado Rapids
1.62
Nashville SC
1.39

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.42scores less
Nashville SC+0.06on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Nashville SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw
70%
Colorado Rapids or Nashville SC
77%
Draw or Nashville SC
54%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
25%
Nashville SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
83%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
52%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
26%
Nashville SC 1+ goals
75%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
40%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
61%
Nashville SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.39 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 2.13 + Nashville SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.76

Nashville SC attack 1.14 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more
46%
level
23%
Nashville SC scores more
30%

Colorado Rapids at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Colorado Rapids 1–1 Nashville SC

Colorado Rapids and Nashville SC drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado.