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Nashville SC vs Charlotte — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nashville SC
Nashville SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charlotte
Charlotte
1/24/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Oxbridge Academy Venue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nashville SC47%
×Draw33%
Charlotte20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville SC
1.08
Charlotte
0.58

Nashville SC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nashville SC
1.83
Charlotte
0.33

allows per match

Nashville SC
0.83
Charlotte
0.33

finishing

Nashville SC+0.00on par
Charlotte+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Charlotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw
80%
Nashville SC or Charlotte
67%
Draw or Charlotte
53%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+
20%
Charlotte wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals
66%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
29%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
10%
Charlotte 1+ goals
44%
Charlotte 2+ goals
12%
Charlotte 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)
71%
Charlotte (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Charlotte away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.83 + Charlotte defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Charlotte attack 0.33 + Nashville SC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nashville SC scores more
47%
level
33%
Charlotte scores more
20%

Nashville SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville SC vs Charlotte

Nashville SC and Charlotte drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Oxbridge Academy Venue in West Palm Beach, Florida.