Charlotte vs Nashville SC — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 18+ matches
Charlotte43%
Nashville SC32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Charlotte creates 20% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Charlotte ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Charlotte at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 18 matches
Nashville SC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.39 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Charlotte attack 1.56 + Nashville SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48
Nashville SC attack 1.14 + Charlotte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Charlotte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Charlotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas CityNashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red BullsCharlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Charlotte host Nashville SC on Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Charlotte vs Nashville SC
Charlotte beat Nashville SC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on April 5, 2025.
The match was played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.