Nasarawa United 3–0 Ifeanyi Uba: Result & Stats

Nasarawa United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ifeanyi Uba

2/24/2021

NPFL · Round 12Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nasarawa United63%

×Draw24%

Ifeanyi Uba13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nasarawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchIfeanyi Uba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.61

Nasarawa United

1.68

Ifeanyi Uba

0.61

Nasarawa United creates 175% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

1.57

creates per match

0.57

0.66

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Nasarawa United

1.57

Ifeanyi Uba

0.57

allows per match

Nasarawa United

0.66

Ifeanyi Uba

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw

87%

Nasarawa United or Ifeanyi Uba

76%

Draw or Ifeanyi Uba

37%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+

36%

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals

81%

Nasarawa United 2+ goals

50%

Nasarawa United 3+ goals

24%

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals

46%

Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals

13%

Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)

83%

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nasarawa United scores more

63%

level

24%

Ifeanyi Uba scores more

13%

Nasarawa United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff