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Ifeanyi Uba vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
CANC
00:00
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
4/22/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 32Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba55%
×Draw27%
Nasarawa United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.41
Nasarawa United
0.68

Ifeanyi Uba creates 107% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 108 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
82%
Ifeanyi Uba or Nasarawa United
73%
Draw or Nasarawa United
45%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
27%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
76%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
41%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
17%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
49%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
15%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
75%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
55%
level
27%
Nasarawa United scores more
18%

Ifeanyi Uba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ifeanyi Uba face Nasarawa United (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Ifeanyi Uba hosting Nasarawa United. Match starts April 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ifeanyi Uba host Nasarawa United at Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.