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Nasarawa United vs Go Round — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
2 – 2
Go Round
Go Round
5/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 21Lafia Township Stadium (Lafia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nasarawa United59%
×Draw25%
Go Round15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.56
Go Round
0.65

Nasarawa United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Go Round
0.64

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Go Round
1.55

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Go Round →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
85%
Nasarawa United or Go Round
75%
Draw or Go Round
41%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
32%
Go Round wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
79%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
46%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
21%
Go Round 1+ goals
48%
Go Round 2+ goals
14%
Go Round 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
79%
Go Round (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Go Round attack 0.64 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
59%
level
25%
Go Round scores more
15%

Nasarawa United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Nasarawa United 2–2 Go Round

Nasarawa United and Go Round drew 2-2 in NPFL on May 20, 2019.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium (Lafia).