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Go Round vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Go Round
Go Round
FT
1 – 1
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
2/14/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 9Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Go Round50%
×Draw31%
Nasarawa United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Go Round
1.19
Nasarawa United
0.62

Go Round creates 92% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 108 away

creates per match

Go Round
0.82
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Go Round
0.55
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Go Round+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Round ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Go Round or draw
81%
Go Round or Nasarawa United
69%
Draw or Nasarawa United
50%

Winning margin

Go Round wins by 2+
22%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Go Round 1+ goals
70%
Go Round 2+ goals
33%
Go Round 3+ goals
12%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
46%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
13%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Go Round (draw refunded)
72%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Round at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Round attack 0.82 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Go Round defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Go Round scores more
50%
level
31%
Nasarawa United scores more
19%

Go Round at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Go Round will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Go Round 1–1 Nasarawa United

Go Round and Nasarawa United drew 1-1 in NPFL on February 14, 2019.

The match was played at Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku).