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Nasarawa United vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
T. Udeh 31' (pen)
4/26/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 25Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nasarawa United61%
×Draw25%
Akwa Starlets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.58
Akwa Starlets
0.59

Nasarawa United creates 168% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
86%
Nasarawa United or Akwa Starlets
75%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
39%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
34%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
79%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
47%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
21%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
45%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
12%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
82%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
61%
level
25%
Akwa Starlets scores more
14%

Nasarawa United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
T. UdehPenalty
45+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasarawa United vs Akwa Starlets

Nasarawa United beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on April 26, 2022.

Goals: T. Udeh (31' pen).

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.