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Akwa Starlets vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
7/28/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 36Nest of Champions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets54%
×Draw26%
Nasarawa United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.52
Nasarawa United
0.80

Akwa Starlets creates 90% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 108 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
80%
Akwa Starlets or Nasarawa United
74%
Draw or Nasarawa United
46%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
28%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
78%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
45%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
20%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
55%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
19%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
73%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
54%
level
26%
Nasarawa United scores more
20%

Akwa Starlets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
U. Asuquo
26'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 0–0 Nasarawa United

Akwa Starlets and Nasarawa United drew 0-0 in NPFL on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Nest of Champions in Uyo.