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Nasaf vs Al Sadd — AFC Champions League 2018

Nasaf
Nasaf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Sadd
Al Sadd
10/2/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 2Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nasaf49%
×Draw25%
Al Sadd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.58
Al Sadd
1.07

Nasaf creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.53
Al Sadd
1.26

allows per match

Nasaf
0.88
Al Sadd
1.62

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Al Sadd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
74%
Nasaf or Al Sadd
75%
Draw or Al Sadd
51%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
25%
Al Sadd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
79%
Nasaf 2+ goals
47%
Nasaf 3+ goals
21%
Al Sadd 1+ goals
66%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
29%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
66%
Al Sadd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.53 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nasaf scores more
49%
level
25%
Al Sadd scores more
26%

Nasaf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nasaf 3–1 Al Sadd

Nasaf beat Al Sadd 3-1 in AFC Champions League on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Qarshi.