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Al Sadd vs Nasaf — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Sadd
Al Sadd
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Nasaf
Nasaf
12/4/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 6Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Sadd58%
×Draw22%
Nasaf20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadd
1.92
Nasaf
1.04

Al Sadd creates 85% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Al Sadd
2.06
Nasaf
0.94

allows per match

Al Sadd
1.15
Nasaf
1.78

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw
80%
Al Sadd or Nasaf
78%
Draw or Nasaf
42%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+
34%
Nasaf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals
85%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
57%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
30%
Nasaf 1+ goals
65%
Nasaf 2+ goals
28%
Nasaf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)
74%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Nasaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Nasaf defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.92

Nasaf attack 0.94 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Sadd scores more
58%
level
22%
Nasaf scores more
20%

Al Sadd at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadd vs Nasaf

Al Sadd and Nasaf drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on December 4, 2023.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.