Narva U21 6–0 Läänemaa Haapsalu: Result & Stats

Narva U21

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Läänemaa Haapsalu

6/5/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 12Narva Kalev-Fama staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Narva U2176%

×Draw14%

Läänemaa Haapsalu11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Narva U21Expected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.09

1.10

Narva U21

3.09

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.10

Narva U21 creates 181% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 37 away

2.53

creates per match

1.27

0.93

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Narva U21

2.53

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.27

allows per match

Narva U21

0.93

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Narva U21+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Narva U21 ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Narva U21 or draw

89%

Narva U21 or Läänemaa Haapsalu

86%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

24%

Winning margin

Narva U21 wins by 2+

56%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Narva U21 1+ goals

95%

Narva U21 2+ goals

81%

Narva U21 3+ goals

58%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

67%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

30%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Narva U21 (draw refunded)

88%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Narva U21 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Narva U21 attack 2.53 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.09

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Narva U21 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Narva U21 scores more

76%

level

14%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

11%

Narva U21 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Narva U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff