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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Narva U21 — Esiliiga B 2026

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Narva U21
Narva U21
4/20/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 7Haapsalu Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu32%
×Draw21%
Narva U2147%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.73
Narva U21
2.10

Narva U21 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 45 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.46
Narva U21
1.64

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.57
Narva U21
2.00

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Narva U21+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Narva U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
53%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Narva U21
79%
Draw or Narva U21
68%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
16%
Narva U21 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
82%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
52%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
25%
Narva U21 1+ goals
88%
Narva U21 2+ goals
62%
Narva U21 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
41%
Narva U21 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Narva U21 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Narva U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Narva U21 attack 1.64 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
32%
level
21%
Narva U21 scores more
47%

Narva U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Narva U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Läänemaa Haapsalu 0–2 Narva U21

Narva U21 beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 2-0 in Esiliiga B on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Haapsalu Linnastaadion in Haapsalu.