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Narva U21 vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Narva U21
Narva U21
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
10/5/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 31Narva Kalev-Fama staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Narva U2164%
×Draw18%
Kuressaare II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Narva U21
2.54
Kuressaare II
1.28

Narva U21 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

creates per match

Narva U21
2.53
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Narva U21
0.93
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Narva U21+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Narva U21 ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Narva U21 or draw
82%
Narva U21 or Kuressaare II
82%
Draw or Kuressaare II
36%

Winning margin

Narva U21 wins by 2+
43%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Narva U21 1+ goals
92%
Narva U21 2+ goals
72%
Narva U21 3+ goals
46%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
72%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
37%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Narva U21 (draw refunded)
78%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Narva U21 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Narva U21 attack 2.53 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.54

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Narva U21 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Narva U21 scores more
64%
level
18%
Kuressaare II scores more
18%

Narva U21 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Narva U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Narva U21 4–1 Kuressaare II

Narva U21 beat Kuressaare II 4-1 in Esiliiga B on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Narva Kalev-Fama staadion in Narva.