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Kuressaare II vs Narva U21 — Esiliiga B 2026

Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Narva U21
Narva U21
10/11/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 20Kuressaare linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kuressaare II32%
×Draw21%
Narva U2146%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare II
1.66
Narva U21
2.02

Narva U21 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kuressaare II
1.31
Narva U21
1.64

allows per match

Kuressaare II
2.39
Narva U21
2.00

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par
Narva U21+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Narva U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw
54%
Kuressaare II or Narva U21
79%
Draw or Narva U21
68%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+
16%
Narva U21 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals
81%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
49%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
23%
Narva U21 1+ goals
87%
Narva U21 2+ goals
60%
Narva U21 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
41%
Narva U21 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Narva U21 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Narva U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Narva U21 attack 1.64 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kuressaare II scores more
32%
level
21%
Narva U21 scores more
46%

Narva U21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Narva U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Kuressaare II 1–0 Narva U21

Kuressaare II beat Narva U21 1-0 in Esiliiga B on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kuressaare linnastaadion in Kuressaare.