Nart Cherkessk 1–1 Legion Dynamo: Result & Stats

Nart Cherkessk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Legion Dynamo

4/13/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadium Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nart Cherkessk38%

×Draw28%

Legion Dynamo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nart CherkesskExpected goals in this matchLegion Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Nart Cherkessk

1.23

Legion Dynamo

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 89 away

1.27

creates per match

1.39

0.90

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk

1.27

Legion Dynamo

1.39

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk

0.90

Legion Dynamo

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Legion Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw

66%

Nart Cherkessk or Legion Dynamo

72%

Draw or Legion Dynamo

62%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+

16%

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals

71%

Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals

35%

Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals

13%

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

68%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

32%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)

53%

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more

38%

level

28%

Legion Dynamo scores more

34%

Nart Cherkessk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nart Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff