Legion Dynamo 0–4 Nart Cherkessk: Result & Stats

Legion Dynamo

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Nart Cherkessk

6/29/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Legion Dynamo39%

×Draw26%

Nart Cherkessk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchNart Cherkessk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.24

Legion Dynamo

1.34

Nart Cherkessk

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 42 away

1.52

creates per match

1.36

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Nart Cherkessk

1.36

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Nart Cherkessk

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Nart Cherkessk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

66%

Legion Dynamo or Nart Cherkessk

74%

Draw or Nart Cherkessk

61%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

18%

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

74%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

39%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

15%

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals

71%

Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals

35%

Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

53%

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Nart Cherkessk away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Nart Cherkessk defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.36 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

39%

level

26%

Nart Cherkessk scores more

34%

Legion Dynamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff