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Nart Cherkessk vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Nart Cherkessk
Nart Cherkessk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
11/3/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nart Cherkessk35%
×Draw27%
Forte Taganrog38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nart Cherkessk
1.21
Forte Taganrog
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 64 away

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk
1.27
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk
0.90
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw
62%
Nart Cherkessk or Forte Taganrog
73%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
65%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+
15%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals
70%
Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals
34%
Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals
12%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
72%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
36%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)
48%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more
35%
level
27%
Forte Taganrog scores more
38%

Forte Taganrog at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Nart Cherkessk 2–3 Forte Taganrog

Forte Taganrog beat Nart Cherkessk 3-2 in Second League - Group 1 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nart in Cherkessk.