Forte Taganrog 1–0 Nart Cherkessk: Result & Stats

Forte Taganrog

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nart Cherkessk

6/30/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Forte Taganrog50%

×Draw25%

Nart Cherkessk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forte TaganrogExpected goals in this matchNart Cherkessk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.04

Forte Taganrog

1.59

Nart Cherkessk

1.04

Forte Taganrog creates 53% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

2.02

creates per match

1.36

0.73

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Forte Taganrog

2.02

Nart Cherkessk

1.36

allows per match

Forte Taganrog

0.73

Nart Cherkessk

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Nart Cherkessk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw

75%

Forte Taganrog or Nart Cherkessk

75%

Draw or Nart Cherkessk

50%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

26%

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

80%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

47%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

21%

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals

65%

Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals

28%

Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

67%

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Nart Cherkessk away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Nart Cherkessk defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.36 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more

50%

level

25%

Nart Cherkessk scores more

25%

Forte Taganrog at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff