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Nart Cherkessk vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Nart Cherkessk
Nart Cherkessk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
6/12/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nart Cherkessk61%
×Draw22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nart Cherkessk
1.84
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.84

Nart Cherkessk creates 119% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk
1.27
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk
0.90
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw
83%
Nart Cherkessk or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
78%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
39%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+
36%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals
84%
Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals
55%
Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
57%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)
78%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.84

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more
61%
level
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
17%

Nart Cherkessk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nart Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nart Cherkessk vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Nart Cherkessk beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nart in Cherkessk.