Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 0–5 Nart Cherkessk

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Nart Cherkessk

10/12/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II21%

×Draw21%

Nart Cherkessk58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz IIExpected goals in this matchNart Cherkessk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.07

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.15

Nart Cherkessk

2.07

Nart Cherkessk creates 80% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 42 away

1.12

creates per match

1.36

2.78

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.12

Nart Cherkessk

1.36

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.78

Nart Cherkessk

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Nart Cherkessk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw

42%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Nart Cherkessk

79%

Draw or Nart Cherkessk

79%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

8%

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

68%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

32%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

11%

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals

87%

Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals

61%

Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

26%

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Nart Cherkessk away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Nart Cherkessk defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.36 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

21%

level

21%

Nart Cherkessk scores more

58%

Nart Cherkessk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nart Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff