Nardo 3–0 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Nardo

FT

3 – 0

Kristiansund II

6/3/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 8Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nardo73%

×Draw15%

Kristiansund II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NardoExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.19

Nardo

3.00

Kristiansund II

1.19

Nardo creates 152% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

3.65

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Nardo

3.65

Kristiansund II

1.38

allows per match

Nardo

1.00

Kristiansund II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Nardo or draw

88%

Nardo or Kristiansund II

85%

Draw or Kristiansund II

27%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+

53%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals

95%

Nardo 2+ goals

79%

Nardo 3+ goals

56%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

70%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

33%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)

86%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 3.65, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 3.65 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 3.00

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Nardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Nardo scores more

73%

level

15%

Kristiansund II scores more

12%

Nardo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff