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Kristiansund II vs Nardo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nardo
Nardo
10/1/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kristiansund II27%
×Draw20%
Nardo52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.59
Nardo
2.25

Nardo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
1.69
Nardo
2.58

allows per match

Kristiansund II
1.92
Nardo
1.50

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Nardo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Nardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
48%
Kristiansund II or Nardo
80%
Draw or Nardo
73%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
13%
Nardo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
80%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
47%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
21%
Nardo 1+ goals
89%
Nardo 2+ goals
65%
Nardo 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
34%
Nardo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Nardo away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Nardo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nardo attack 2.58 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
27%
level
20%
Nardo scores more
52%

Nardo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Kristiansund II 1–2 Nardo

Nardo beat Kristiansund II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.