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Nardo vs Innstranden — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Nardo
Nardo
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Innstranden
Innstranden
4/10/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 1Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nardo79%
×Draw12%
Innstranden9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nardo
3.55
Innstranden
1.19

Nardo creates 198% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nardo
3.65
Innstranden
1.38

allows per match

Nardo
1.00
Innstranden
3.46

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par
Innstranden+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Innstranden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Nardo or draw
91%
Nardo or Innstranden
88%
Draw or Innstranden
21%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+
62%
Innstranden wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals
97%
Nardo 2+ goals
86%
Nardo 3+ goals
67%
Innstranden 1+ goals
70%
Innstranden 2+ goals
33%
Innstranden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)
90%
Innstranden (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 3.65, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Innstranden away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 3.65 + Innstranden defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 3.55

Innstranden attack 1.38 + Nardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Nardo scores more
79%
level
12%
Innstranden scores more
9%

Nardo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nardo vs Innstranden

Nardo and Innstranden drew 4-4 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Nissekollen Kunstgress in Trondheim.