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Innstranden vs Nardo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Innstranden
Innstranden
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
Nardo
Nardo
10/9/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 24Mørkvedlia kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Innstranden15%
×Draw16%
Nardo69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Innstranden
1.32
Nardo
2.87

Nardo creates 117% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Innstranden
1.15
Nardo
2.58

allows per match

Innstranden
3.15
Nardo
1.50

finishing

Innstranden+0.00on par
Nardo+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Innstranden ↓

Nardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Innstranden or draw
31%
Innstranden or Nardo
84%
Draw or Nardo
85%

Winning margin

Innstranden wins by 2+
6%
Nardo wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Innstranden 1+ goals
73%
Innstranden 2+ goals
38%
Innstranden 3+ goals
15%
Nardo 1+ goals
94%
Nardo 2+ goals
77%
Nardo 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Innstranden (draw refunded)
18%
Nardo (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Innstranden at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Nardo away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Innstranden attack 1.15 + Nardo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nardo attack 2.58 + Innstranden defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Innstranden scores more
15%
level
16%
Nardo scores more
69%

Nardo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Innstranden 1–5 Nardo

Nardo beat Innstranden 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Mørkvedlia kunstgress in Bodø.