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NAPSA Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
2/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

NAPSA Stars47%
×Draw32%
Mufulira Wanderers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.14
Mufulira Wanderers
0.66

NAPSA Stars creates 73% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 60 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Mufulira Wanderers
0.52

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Mufulira Wanderers
1.20

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
79%
NAPSA Stars or Mufulira Wanderers
68%
Draw or Mufulira Wanderers
53%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
20%
Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
68%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
32%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
11%
Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
48%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
14%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
47%
level
32%
Mufulira Wanderers scores more
21%

NAPSA Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: NAPSA Stars 1–0 Mufulira Wanderers

NAPSA Stars beat Mufulira Wanderers 1-0 in Super League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at REIZ Arena in Lusaka.