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Mufulira Wanderers vs NAPSA Stars — Super League 2019

Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
10/5/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers44%
×Draw32%
NAPSA Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
NAPSA Stars
0.72

Mufulira Wanderers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
NAPSA Stars
0.71

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers
0.73
NAPSA Stars
1.08

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par
NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

NAPSA Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw
76%
Mufulira Wanderers or NAPSA Stars
68%
Draw or NAPSA Stars
56%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
18%
NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
66%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
29%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
10%
NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
51%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
16%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
64%
NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more
44%
level
32%
NAPSA Stars scores more
24%

Mufulira Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mufulira Wanderers 1–0 NAPSA Stars

Mufulira Wanderers beat NAPSA Stars 1-0 in Super League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Shinde Stadium in Mufulira.