Napredak 2–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Napredak

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jedinstvo Ub

N. Bastajić 77'

S. Bukorac 32'

I. Milanović 41'

11/10/2024

Super Liga · Round 15Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Napredak56%

×Draw24%

Jedinstvo Ub21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapredakExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.97

Napredak

1.75

Jedinstvo Ub

0.97

Napredak creates 80% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

0.74

1.20

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Napredak

1.09

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Napredak

1.20

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Napredak or draw

79%

Napredak or Jedinstvo Ub

76%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

44%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+

31%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals

83%

Napredak 2+ goals

52%

Napredak 3+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

62%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)

73%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.09 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Napredak defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Napredak scores more

56%

level

24%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

21%

Napredak at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Bukorac

Napredak · D

8.2

Match Events

14'

Viktor Damjanić

32'

S. Bukorac

41'

I. Milanović↳ T. Pérez

67'

M. Tošeski← M. Šarić

67'

M. Petković← S. Marjanović

67'

M. Bubanj← V. Miletić

69'

Mihajlo PetkovićGoal cancelled

72'

D. Miladinović← M. Mitrović

72'

73'

77'

82'

83'

N. Đeković← N. Karaklajić

83'

L. Zhordania← P. Ferreira

83'

B. Runjajić← Simón Moreno

83'

Gustavo Vieira← I. Milanović

87'

A. Luković← N. Bastajić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapredakJedinstvo

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots8

7Corners2

14Fouls19

Shots

24Total Shots8

5On Target2

12Off Target3

7Blocked3

18Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

406Total Passes349

321Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0