Jedinstvo Ub 0–0 Napredak: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napredak

4/6/2025

Super Liga · Round 30Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub40%

×Draw27%

Napredak33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchNapredak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

Jedinstvo Ub

1.32

Napredak

1.17

Jedinstvo Ub creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 143 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.50

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

Napredak

0.83

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

Napredak

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Napredak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

67%

Jedinstvo Ub or Napredak

73%

Draw or Napredak

60%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

18%

Napredak wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

73%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

38%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

15%

Napredak 1+ goals

69%

Napredak 2+ goals

33%

Napredak 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

55%

Napredak (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.64 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + Napredak defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Napredak attack 0.83 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

40%

level

27%

Napredak scores more

33%

Jedinstvo Ub at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

U. Ignjatović

Napredak · D

8.2

Match Events

16'

Stefan Bukorac

66'

M. Mitrović← D. Miladinović

67'

N. Doderović← V. Damjanić

71'

U. Savković← S. Petkoski Cimbaljević

71'

N. Bogdanovski← M. Petković

72'

A. Luković← V. Miletić

81'

S. Marjanović← N. Karaklajić

83'

Veljko Kijevčanin

88'

U. Stevančević← R. Denzell

88'

D. Aćimović← A. Paić

88'

M. Bubanj← M. Šarić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoNapredak

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots10

8Corners6

19Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots10

1On Target2

4Off Target7

7Blocked1

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

419Total Passes339

337Accurate Passes252

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2