Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Napredak vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Javor
Javor
A. Majdevac 1'
P. Petrovic 39'
L. Bayere Junior 17'
1/31/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Napredak45%
×Draw27%
Javor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.43
Javor
1.06

Napredak creates 35% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 86 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.09
Javor
0.93

allows per match

Napredak
1.20
Javor
1.76

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
72%
Napredak or Javor
73%
Draw or Javor
55%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
22%
Javor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
76%
Napredak 2+ goals
42%
Napredak 3+ goals
17%
Javor 1+ goals
65%
Javor 2+ goals
29%
Javor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
62%
Javor (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches

Javor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.09 + Javor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Javor attack 0.93 + Napredak defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Napredak scores more
45%
level
27%
Javor scores more
28%

Napredak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. PetrovicJavorJavor · D
8.2

Match Events

1'
A. Majdevac↳ A. Lutovac
17'
L. Bayere Junior↳ M. Bjekovic
29'
Stefan Bukorac
39'
P. Petrovic↳ D. Skoko
46'
D. Cubra← D. Bojat
46'
M. Toseski← M. Bubanj
46'
N. Bastajic← N. Skrobonja
54'
N. Djokic← D. Pantelic
64'
S. Vilotic← M. Bjekovic
64'
K. Saliman← L. Bayere Junior
65'
Đorđe Skoko
69'
L. Miladinovic← S. Bukorac
82'
U. Sremcevic← A. Majdevac
85'
Mamane Amadou Sabo
90'
M. Sise← I. Tanko
90'
A. Ristic← A. Radonjic

Possession

70%Napredak

Shots

7Napredak

Pass accuracy

54%Napredak

Statistics

NapredakJavor
Overview
70%Possession30%
7Total Shots13
0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.67
4Corners6
9Fouls22
Shots
7Total Shots13
3On Target3
2Off Target5
2Blocked5
4Inside Box8
3Outside Box5
Passing
70%Possession30%
579Total Passes245
499Accurate Passes181
86%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls22
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Napredak vs Javor

Javor beat Napredak 2-1 in Super Liga on January 31, 2026.

Goals: A. Majdevac (1'), L. Bayere Junior (17'), P. Petrovic (39').

Napredak controlled possession (70%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Youth Stadium.