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Javor vs Napredak — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Napredak
Napredak
8/22/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Stadion Kraj Moravice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Javor71%
×Draw18%
Napredak11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
2.19
Napredak
0.71

Javor creates 208% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Javor
1.66
Napredak
0.56

allows per match

Javor
0.85
Napredak
2.71

finishing

Javor-0.49scores less
Napredak+0.11scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Napredak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Javor or draw
89%
Javor or Napredak
82%
Draw or Napredak
29%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
47%
Napredak wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
89%
Javor 2+ goals
64%
Javor 3+ goals
37%
Napredak 1+ goals
51%
Napredak 2+ goals
16%
Napredak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
87%
Napredak (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.85 · 6 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.71 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.66 + Napredak defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Napredak attack 0.56 + Javor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Javor scores more
71%
level
18%
Napredak scores more
11%

Javor at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
U. IgnjatovicNapredakNapredak · F
8.2

Match Events

35'
K. Saliman← N. Djokic
35'
L. Micic← L. Bayere Junior
56'
Luka Drobnjak
62'
M. Zuvic← D. Pantelic
65'
N. Vukajlovic← S. Hajdin
65'
M. Bubanj← L. Drobnjak
73'
M. Vulic← M. Toseski
80'
Stefan Vilotic
90'
M. Ilic← S. Vilotic
90'
P. Djokovic← O. Krsmanovic
90'
M. Saric← A. Majdevac

Possession

38%Javor

Shots

12Javor

Pass accuracy

50%Javor

Statistics

JavorNapredak
Overview
38%Possession62%
12Total Shots13
4Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target4
5Off Target5
4Blocked4
8Inside Box11
4Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
274Total Passes452
218Accurate Passes367
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Javor vs Napredak

Javor and Napredak drew 0-0 in Super Liga on August 22, 2025.

Napredak controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Moravice in Ivanjica.