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Napoli vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Napoli
Napoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monza
Monza
12/29/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Napoli48%
×Draw25%
Monza27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.56
Monza
1.10

Napoli creates 42% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.56
Monza
1.23

allows per match

Napoli
0.97
Monza
1.57

finishing

Napoli+0.16scores more
Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
73%
Napoli or Monza
75%
Draw or Monza
52%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
25%
Monza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
79%
Napoli 2+ goals
46%
Napoli 3+ goals
21%
Monza 1+ goals
67%
Monza 2+ goals
30%
Monza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
64%
Monza (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.56 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Monza attack 1.23 + Napoli defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Napoli scores more
48%
level
25%
Monza scores more
27%

Napoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napoli vs Monza

Napoli and Monza drew 0-0 in Serie A on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.