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Monza vs Napoli — Serie A 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli
Napoli
4/19/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 33U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Monza28%
×Draw30%
Napoli42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
0.88
Napoli
1.17

Napoli creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Monza
0.84
Napoli
1.41

allows per match

Monza
0.93
Napoli
0.92

finishing

Monza-0.01on par
Napoli+0.02on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Monza or draw
58%
Monza or Napoli
70%
Draw or Napoli
72%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
9%
Napoli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
59%
Monza 2+ goals
22%
Monza 3+ goals
6%
Napoli 1+ goals
69%
Napoli 2+ goals
33%
Napoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
39%
Napoli (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.92 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 0.84 + Napoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Napoli attack 1.41 + Monza defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza scores more
28%
level
30%
Napoli scores more
42%

Napoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Monza 0–1 Napoli

Napoli beat Monza 1-0 in Serie A on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.