Napoli 4–0 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Monza

Kim Min-Jae 90+3'

K. Kvaratskhelia 62', 35'

V. Osimhen 45+2'

8/21/2022

Serie A · Round 2Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Napoli51%

×Draw25%

Monza24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.01

Napoli

1.60

Monza

1.01

Napoli creates 58% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 8 away

1.62

creates per match

1.16

0.87

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Napoli

1.62

Monza

1.16

allows per match

Napoli

0.87

Monza

1.57

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.09on par

Monza+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

76%

Napoli or Monza

75%

Draw or Monza

49%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

27%

Monza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

80%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

22%

Monza 1+ goals

64%

Monza 2+ goals

27%

Monza 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

68%

Monza (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 41 matches

Monza away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.62 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Monza attack 1.16 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Napoli scores more

51%

level

25%

Monza scores more

24%

Napoli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Zieliński

Napoli · M

9.2

Match Events

35'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ P. Zieliński

37'

Gianluca Caprari

45+2'

V. Osimhen↳ A. Zambo Anguissa

46'

S. Molina← M. DAlessandro

48'

V. Antov← A. Ranocchia

58'

M. Valoti← F. Ranocchia

59'

Mário Rui

62'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ S. Lobotka

69'

Andrea PetagnaGoal cancelled

70'

M. Olivera← Mário Rui

70'

E. Elmas← K. Kvaratskhelia

74'

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

78'

M. Politano← S. Lobotka

78'

A. Zerbin← H. Lozano

83'

C. Gytkjær← A. Petagna

83'

A. Colpani← S. Birindelli

84'

A. Ounas← V. Osimhen

90+3'

Kim Min-Jae↳ P. Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliMonza

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots4

10Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots4

5On Target1

8Off Target3

9Blocked0

15Inside Box1

7Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

489Total Passes410

436Accurate Passes349

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie A: Napoli 4–0 Monza

Napoli beat Monza 4-0 in Serie A on August 21, 2022.

Goals: K. Kvaratskhelia (35', 62'), V. Osimhen (45+2'), Kim Min-Jae (90+3').

Napoli controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.

Napoli vs Monza — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Napoli 4–0 Monza