Napoli 3–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Leicester

E. Elmas 53', 24'

A. Ounas 4'

K. Dewsbury-Hall 33'

J. Evans 27'

12/9/2021

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 6Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Napoli46%

×Draw23%

Leicester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.45

Napoli

1.80

Leicester

1.45

Napoli creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.89

creates per match

1.57

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Napoli

1.89

Leicester

1.57

allows per match

Napoli

1.33

Leicester

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

69%

Napoli or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

54%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

25%

Leicester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

83%

Napoli 2+ goals

54%

Napoli 3+ goals

27%

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

60%

Leicester (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.89 + Leicester defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Leicester attack 1.57 + Napoli defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Napoli scores more

46%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

31%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Elmas

Napoli · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

24'

27'

33'

33'

45'

K. Malcuit← H. Lozano

53'

E. Elmas↳ G. Di Lorenzo

63'

D. Mertens← A. Ounas

72'

P. Daka← H. Barnes

77'

Diego Demme

77'

B. Soumaré← Y. Tielemans

78'

K. Manolas← D. Demme

89'

M. Albrighton← K. Dewsbury-Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliLeicester

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots15

3Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target6

2Off Target7

4Blocked2

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

448Total Passes499

380Accurate Passes438

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0