Leicester 2–2 Napoli: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Napoli

H. Barnes 64'

Ayoze Pérez 9'

V. Osimhen 87', 69'

9/16/2021

UEFA Europa League · Group C - 1King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Leicester50%

×Draw23%

Napoli27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Leicester

1.77

Napoli

1.23

Leicester creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

2.14

creates per match

1.60

0.86

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Leicester

2.14

Napoli

1.60

allows per match

Leicester

0.86

Napoli

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

73%

Leicester or Napoli

77%

Draw or Napoli

50%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

27%

Napoli wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

83%

Leicester 2+ goals

53%

Leicester 3+ goals

26%

Napoli 1+ goals

71%

Napoli 2+ goals

35%

Napoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

65%

Napoli (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 2.14 + Napoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Napoli attack 1.60 + Leicester defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leicester scores more

50%

level

23%

Napoli scores more

27%

Leicester at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

V. Osimhen

Napoli · F

9.3

Match Events

9'

Ayoze Pérez↳ H. Barnes

21'

Wilfred Ndidi

32'

Boubakary Soumaré

33'

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

46'

Y. Tielemans← Ayoze Pérez

46'

Ç. Söyüncü← J. Evans

53'

Jannik Vestergaard

60'

Patson DakaGoal confirmed

60'

Patson DakaGoal confirmed

63'

M. Politano← H. Lozano

64'

E. Elmas← P. Zieliński

64'

H. Barnes↳ K. Iheanacho

69'

V. Osimhen↳ Fabián Ruiz

71'

A. Lookman← P. Daka

74'

A. Ounas← L. Insigne

76'

Çağlar Söyüncü

78'

J. Maddison← B. Soumaré

84'

Juan Jesus← K. Malcuit

84'

A. Petagna← A. Zambo Anguissa

87'

V. Osimhen↳ M. Politano

88'

J. Vardy← K. Iheanacho

90+3'

Wilfred Ndidi

90+3'

Wilfred Ndidi

90+4'

Amir Rrahmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterNapoli

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots22

2Corners8

14Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots22

5On Target7

0Off Target11

2Blocked4

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box11

Passing

46%Possession54%

438Total Passes501

362Accurate Passes433

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2