Napoli 5–2 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Legia Warszawa

12/10/2015

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Napoli53%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.20

Napoli

1.87

Legia Warszawa

1.20

Napoli creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Napoli

2.20

Legia Warszawa

1.00

allows per match

Napoli

1.40

Legia Warszawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

76%

Napoli or Legia Warszawa

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

47%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

30%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

85%

Napoli 2+ goals

56%

Napoli 3+ goals

29%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

70%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

34%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

68%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.20 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.87

Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 + Napoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Napoli scores more

53%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa scores more

24%

Napoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff