Legia Warszawa 0–2 Napoli: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

10/1/2015

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Pepsi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Legia Warszawa35%

×Draw27%

Napoli38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.25

Legia Warszawa

1.20

Napoli

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

1.64

0.87

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

1.13

Napoli

1.64

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

0.87

Napoli

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

62%

Legia Warszawa or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

65%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

15%

Napoli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

70%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

34%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

12%

Napoli 1+ goals

71%

Napoli 2+ goals

36%

Napoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

48%

Napoli (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.13 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Napoli attack 1.64 + Legia Warszawa defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

35%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

38%

Napoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff