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Napoli vs Granada CF — UEFA Europa League 2026

Napoli
Napoliadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
2/25/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Round of 32Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Napoli40%
×Draw24%
Granada CF36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.60
Granada CF
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Napoli
2.20
Granada CF
1.63

allows per match

Napoli
1.40
Granada CF
1.00

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
64%
Napoli or Granada CF
76%
Draw or Granada CF
60%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
20%
Granada CF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
80%
Napoli 2+ goals
47%
Napoli 3+ goals
22%
Granada CF 1+ goals
78%
Granada CF 2+ goals
44%
Granada CF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
53%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.20 + Granada CF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Granada CF attack 1.63 + Napoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Napoli scores more
40%
level
24%
Granada CF scores more
36%

Napoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napoli vs Granada CF

Napoli beat Granada CF 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Naples.