Granada CF 2–0 Napoli: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Napoli

2/18/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 32Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Granada CF39%

×Draw28%

Napoli33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Granada CF

1.21

Napoli

1.10

Granada CF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.14

creates per match

1.64

0.57

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Granada CF

1.14

Napoli

1.64

allows per match

Granada CF

0.57

Napoli

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

67%

Granada CF or Napoli

72%

Draw or Napoli

61%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

17%

Napoli wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

70%

Granada CF 2+ goals

34%

Granada CF 3+ goals

12%

Napoli 1+ goals

67%

Napoli 2+ goals

30%

Napoli 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

54%

Napoli (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.14 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Napoli attack 1.64 + Granada CF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granada CF scores more

39%

level

28%

Napoli scores more

33%

Granada CF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff