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Napoli vs Chievo — Serie A 2018

Napoli
Napoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chievo
Chievo
11/25/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Napoli65%
×Draw21%
Chievo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.96
Chievo
0.76

Napoli creates 158% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 19 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.92
Chievo
0.58

allows per match

Napoli
0.94
Chievo
2.00

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
86%
Napoli or Chievo
79%
Draw or Chievo
35%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
40%
Chievo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
86%
Napoli 2+ goals
58%
Napoli 3+ goals
31%
Chievo 1+ goals
53%
Chievo 2+ goals
18%
Chievo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
83%
Chievo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.94 · 140 matches

Chievo away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.92 + Chievo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Chievo attack 0.58 + Napoli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Napoli scores more
65%
level
21%
Chievo scores more
14%

Napoli at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Napoli 0–0 Chievo

Napoli and Chievo drew 0-0 in Serie A on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio San Paolo in Naples.