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Chievo vs Napoli — Serie A 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Napoli
Napoli
4/14/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 32Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chievo17%
×Draw22%
Napoli61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
0.85
Napoli
1.85

Napoli creates 118% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 137 away

creates per match

Chievo
0.74
Napoli
1.76

allows per match

Chievo
1.95
Napoli
0.96

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
39%
Chievo or Napoli
78%
Draw or Napoli
83%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
5%
Napoli wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
57%
Chievo 2+ goals
21%
Chievo 3+ goals
5%
Napoli 1+ goals
84%
Napoli 2+ goals
55%
Napoli 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
22%
Napoli (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 0.74 + Napoli defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Napoli attack 1.76 + Chievo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chievo scores more
17%
level
22%
Napoli scores more
61%

Napoli at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chievo vs Napoli

Napoli beat Chievo 3-1 in Serie A on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.