Napoli 4–2 Benfica: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Benfica

D. Mertens 58', 51'

A. Milik 54' (pen)

M. Hamšík 20'

E. Salvio 86'

Goncalo Guedes 70'

9/28/2016

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Napoli55%

×Draw23%

Benfica22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.03

Napoli

1.78

Benfica

1.03

Napoli creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

0.92

1.15

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Napoli

1.86

Benfica

0.92

allows per match

Napoli

1.15

Benfica

1.70

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Napoli-0.29scores less

Benfica-0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

78%

Napoli or Benfica

77%

Draw or Benfica

45%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

31%

Benfica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

83%

Napoli 2+ goals

53%

Napoli 3+ goals

26%

Benfica 1+ goals

64%

Benfica 2+ goals

28%

Benfica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

72%

Benfica (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Benfica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.86 + Benfica defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Benfica attack 0.92 + Napoli defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Napoli scores more

55%

level

23%

Benfica scores more

22%

Napoli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Mertens

Napoli · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

N. Maksimović← Albiol

20'

M. Hamšík↳ F. Ghoulam

50'

Lisandro López

51'

D. Mertens

53'

Júlio César

54'

A. MilikPenalty

56'

E. Salvio← André Horta

58'

D. Mertens↳ A. Milik

65'

André Carrillo

67'

Goncalo Guedes← A. Carrillo

70'

L. Insigne← José Callejón

70'

Goncalo Guedes

77'

Ljubomir Fejsa

82'

E. Giaccherini← D. Mertens

82'

José Gomes← L. Fejsa

86'

Pepe Reina

86'

E. Salvio↳ André Almeida

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliBenfica

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots7

6Corners0

7Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target3

4Off Target2

1Blocked2

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

648Total Passes519

569Accurate Passes443

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

5Offsides2