Benfica vs Napoli — UEFA Champions League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Benfica49%
Napoli28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Benfica creates 38% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Benfica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Benfica at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches
Napoli away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.97 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Benfica attack 1.75 + Napoli defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.86
Napoli attack 1.28 + Benfica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Benfica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Arsenal
Bayern München
Liverpool
Tottenham
Barcelona
Chelsea
Sporting CP
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Inter
Paris Saint Germain
Newcastle
Juventus
Atletico Madrid
Atalanta
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
Olympiakos Piraeus
Club Brugge KV
Galatasaray
Monaco
Qarabag
Bodo/GlimtBenfica
Marseille
Pafos
Union St. Gilloise
PSV Eindhoven
Athletic ClubNapoli
FC Copenhagen
Ajax
Eintracht Frankfurt
Slavia Praha
Villarreal
Kairat AlmatyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Benfica host Napoli on Tuesday, 6 December 2016 at 19:45. The match is part of the UEFA Champions League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Champions League: Benfica 1–2 Napoli
Napoli beat Benfica 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on December 6, 2016.
Goals: José Callejón (60'), D. Mertens (79'), R. Jiménez (87').
Napoli controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon.