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Nantong Zhiyun vs Kunshan — League One 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kunshan
Kunshan
7/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 12Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun32%
×Draw26%
Kunshan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.20
Kunshan
1.39

Kunshan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 42 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.91
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
59%
Nantong Zhiyun or Kunshan
74%
Draw or Kunshan
68%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
13%
Kunshan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
70%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
34%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
12%
Kunshan 1+ goals
75%
Kunshan 2+ goals
40%
Kunshan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
44%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.58 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
32%
level
26%
Kunshan scores more
41%

Kunshan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Zhiyun vs Kunshan

Nantong Zhiyun and Kunshan drew 1-1 in League One on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.