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Kunshan vs Nantong Zhiyun — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
5/25/2021League OneLeague One · Round 7Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan43%
×Draw27%
Nantong Zhiyun30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.36
Nantong Zhiyun
1.08

Kunshan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 77 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Nantong Zhiyun
1.38

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Nantong Zhiyun
0.96

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
70%
Kunshan or Nantong Zhiyun
73%
Draw or Nantong Zhiyun
57%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
20%
Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
74%
Kunshan 2+ goals
39%
Kunshan 3+ goals
16%
Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
66%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
29%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
59%
Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kunshan scores more
43%
level
27%
Nantong Zhiyun scores more
30%

Kunshan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 1–1 Nantong Zhiyun

Kunshan and Nantong Zhiyun drew 1-1 in League One on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center in Jinzhou.